المؤلف
الملخص
This research deal with using seasonal time series models to study and analysis the monthly data on consumption of electricity in Fallujha city for the period (2005-2010) , whereas this models are distinct with high accuracy and flexible in analysis time series .
The results of application show that the proper and efficiency model for representing time series data are the multiplicative seasonal model of order :
SARIMA(1 , 1 , 1)×(0 , 1 , 1)12
According to estimation results of this model done forecasting to monthly consumption of electrics capacity for two years ahead from the period Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2012 , these values show a harmonic direction with the same original time series.
الكلمات الرئيسة
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